Kosovo's Fifth Anniversary -
On the Road to Nowhere?
C·A·P Working Paper, München 03/2004
Author: Dr. Wim van Meurs
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Executive Summary
Five years: 24 March 2004 marks the fifth anniversary of NATO operation Allied
Force. As recent bouts of violence have tragically demonstrated, stability is still
fragile, ethnic hatred unabated and rapprochement or reconciliation between local Albanians
and Serbs as illusive as five years ago.
The status question: As the "standards before status" approach has
confirmed, conditionalities, incentives and international pressure will only go so far
in turning a weak state-like entity in a functioning state. Functional statehood hardly
figures in the Belgrade and Prishtina visions of the future of Kosovo. All indications
are that resolving the status issue either way - autonomy under Serbian sovereignty
or full independence - would not provide real answers to the many fundamental challenges
Kosovo faces, e.g. economic restructuring, societal reconciliation and European integration.
The fundamental flaw of "standards before status" is that it can unfold its
incentive function for one party only and only if it prejudices the final status outcome.
The opening of a negotiation process more readily invokes the forces of the past than
peaceable visionaries.
Time: Since 1999, the de facto moratorium on the status issue has contributed
substantially to stabilisation and normalisation in the region, but the productive phase
of temporising is coming to an end. If the logic of the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro
was at least partly linked to Kosovo, the likely dissolution of the State Union by early
2006 sets a firm time limit for the status of Kosovo. Political expediency and timetables
are strongly against a further postponement of final-status negotiations, even though
the non-status dialogue will not have shifted either partisan position on the status
issue one inch.
Negotiations: In order to earth the extremely emotional and zero-sum debates
in political reality, it would be advisable to challenge both parties to produce a concrete
platform for future status - much along the lines of the initial negotiations between
Belgrade and Podgorica. The political leaders in Belgrade actually have no master plan
for a sustainable and domestically acceptable solution for Kosovo. Nor do their interlocutors
from Prishtina have a concept for the Serb minority in the envisaged independent Kosovo.
The endogenous capabilities in Belgrade and Prishtina to initiate a constructive process
aimed at a mutually acceptable compromise arrangement for the final status of Kosovo
are strictly limited.
International community: Assuming that the status process were to result in
acceptance of either conditional independence or autonomy within Serbia by the negotiating
parties, then it would be up to the international community to apply the fundamental
principles of functional statehood, finality of state disintegration and fair arrangements
for minorities. Most likely, at the end of the day, however, the UN and the Contact
Group will have to define a final status single-handedly.
Triple deadlock: Ideally, the issues of Belgrade's sovereignty over Kosovo and
Prishtina's sovereign statehood should be separated. Currently, a triple deadlock exists.
The international deadlock concerns the threat of a veto in the UNSC against national
determination leading to secession and independence. The bilateral deadlock is Prishtina's
and Belgrade's incapability and unwillingness to compromise on the status issue with
no perspective whatsoever for the international community to sway leaders on either
side. The local deadlock concerns the standoff between Albanians and Serbs in Kosovo.
Final status: As the bilateral deadlock cannot be broken, the international
deadlock is the key. The fake option or lever of a restoration of Belgrade's sovereignty
over Kosovo should be scrapped. The Contact Group ought to prepare the ground for new
UN resolution annulling Res. 1244 and thereby ending Belgrade's sovereignty over Kosovo
and transferring full sovereignty - not to Prishtina, but to the UN in New York. A UN
trusteeship would eliminate the bilateral deadlock in status negotiations and create
much better prospects for non-status negotiations. Similarly, once the Kosovo Serbs
are in a situation similar to other Serb minorities (without parallel institutions or
overriding loyalty to Belgrade), they will have to engage with Prishtina and might negotiate
some for of autonomy within Kosovo. Thus, such a UN trusteeship in Europe would be a
demanding strategy for the international community and the UN in particular, but it
might produce a functioning state; it would be final by not creating a precedent for
further state disintegration; and it would allow for fair arrangements with the Serb
minority without upturning functionality or finality.
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